One Year Later: The impact of the Russian conflict with Ukraine on Africa

During the ‘Dakar 2 Summit on Feeding Africa: Food Sovereignty and Resilience’ held during 25-27 January 2023, the AfDB reported that this number rose sharply in 2022, with Africans now representing one-third (about 300 million people) of the global population that is currently facing hunger and food insecurity. 

Fertilizer costs

Supply chain disruptions of primary farm inputs, including fertilizer imports from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, further threatened Africa’s food security. The World Food Programme (WFP) reported that global fertilizer prices have risen by 199 per cent since May 2020, with prices for fertilizers more than doubling in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania in 2022. 

The WFP notes that “while this is partly a consequence of the war in Ukraine, prices of food, fuel, and fertilizers had already reached record highs by the end of 2021.” The “Black Sea Grain Initiative,” brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye and signed in July 2022, has eased some of the “fertilizer crunch” by allowing the movement of fertilizer exports from Ukraine to the rest of the world. 

Looking ahead to the 2023-2024 growing season, the price and availability of fertilizers for farmers in Africa will determine how the continent will counter widespread food insecurity. 

According to the World Bank,  Africa’s food production is already hampered due to low fertilizer usage, with “an average fertilizer application rate of 22 kilograms per hectare, compared to a world average that is seven times higher (146 kilograms per hectare)”. 

The Bank estimates that fertilizer exports from major African suppliers, namely Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, which remain disrupted, will impact Africa’s food production and exacerbate food security throughout 2023. 

Moreover, the World Bank notes that other fertilizer producers are banning exports of these critical inputs to protect their own farmers, leaving African farmers without many options. 

Conclusion

As the world reflects on the various shocks created by the year-long conflict, Africans must grapple with the short-term inadvertent threats to their economies, food systems, and well-being. Indeed, UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, speaking at the Global Food Security Call to Action in May 2022, warned, “If we do not feed people, we feed conflict.”